Demographic Transition
On the last test I was confused as to whether pre-industrial or post-industrial had lower growth rates. I understand that pre-industrial countries have Zero Population Growth because their birth and death rates are practically the same. But where does that leave post-industrial countries, whose death rates exceed their birth rates? Does that mean that now post-industrial countries have negative growth rates? I understand the social/economic/scientific reasoning behind the patterns within each individual stage, I just get confused when it comes down to contrasting the Stage 1 and Stage 4 in terms of overall growth, moreover which one experiences less of it.
December 17th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
Post-industrial countries do indeed have negative growth rates; that’s why countries such as Japan and Germany have shrinking populations. Their total fertility rates are less than 2.1 (replacement-level fertility), so their populations are both aging and shrinking. I imagine that pre-industrial countries’ populations are hypothetically skewed towards younger generations because of high death rates, while post-industrial countries’ populations are much older in comparison.
December 17th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
I would add: AGR is simply a function of CBR-CDR/10. In the preindustrial stage, CBR and CDR are both high and almost equal-so slope (AGR) is zero or you may some slight fluctuation. Post-industrial countries could show the same thing, but CBR and CDR would be very low…we contrasted a number of these countries in class.