PDS APES 8th Period 2009-10

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http://www.aag.org/education/center/cgge-aag%20site/population/images/pop_rates.jpg

Today, we learned about Demographic Transition. It is best illustrated by a graph displaying the CDR (Crude Death Rate), CBR (Crude Birth Rate), and Population size. The model that we use has four stages:

1. The first stage is the pre industrial stage–generally tribal nations–and are non-existent these days. In the first stage, the CDR and CBR are approximately equivalent, resulting in a stable population.
2. The second stage consists of coutries that are transitional, that is countries that are becoming industrialized and have achieved the technology to lower death rates. Therefore, for countries in stage two, the CDR sharply declines while the CBR remains almost the same, causing the population to begin an exponential growth. Most developing nations are described as in stage two.
3. Countries in the third stage are industrial and are most of the world’s developed nations. During this stage, the country’s CBR begins to decrease to meet the CDR; however, the two rates are not quite equal, so the population still grows, but at a slower rate.
4. Fourth stage countries consists of a few developed nations and are not very common today. At this point, the CDR and CBR will again be nearly the same, but much lower than they were in stage one. The population stabilizes which gives an “S” shape to the population curve.

But why does this happen?

There are a couple of good reasons why the graph looks the way it does:

• In stage 1, the CDR remains very high because the medication in the country is not very developed, the sanitation is poor, and the food supply is often unstable. All of this leads to an increase in disease and malnutrition, and therefore, death.
• Also in stage 1, the CBR is very high because women cannot ensure that their children will live past their childhood, so they have ‘insurance babies’ to make sure that they have children. And many places in stage 1 may require children as a work force, so more children means that more work can be done. Plus, with a lack of development, the women in stage 1 countries may not have the education on birth control that others do.
• In stage 2, the CDR drops as the country develops and the factors that held the CDR so high–medicine, sanitation, and nutrition– are improved.
• In stage 3, the CBR drops as children begin to cost more to raise; whether it be the cost of food, education, or urban living, raising a child becomes an investment. Also, with children not needed in the work force, more kids does not mean more income for a family. Finally, in many developed countries, the opportunities and education for women increase; women can now hold their own jobs, which restricts the amount of time that they can spend raising children, or they may also learn the advantages to family planning and birth control.
• At last, in stage 4, all of the factors in stages 2 and 3 even each other out to create a stable population.

Where do some countries fall on this graph?

USA? Stage 3

India? Stage 2

China? Stage 3

Japan? Stage 5? As we have learned, the CBR in Japan is far lower than the CDR. Can there be a different stage for situations such as these?

http://mat0515.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/demographic_transition_detailed.jpg