It’s a debacle. It’s a catastrophe. It’s a calamity of unseen proportions. The Boston Red Sox are back to where they left off last September, featuring 10-0 shutouts, blown 9-0 leads, and a team ERA of 6.68–more than a full run higher than the next worst team. Bobby V’s Red Sox are 4-10 to start the season–and it’s never going to get better.

It’s a season that was seemingly destined to fail. Near-MVP Jacoby Ellsbury suffered a freak injury when Rays’ shortstop Reid Brignac fell onto his shoulder, and now he’s out for two months. Fellow outfielder Carl Crawford, poised for a comeback after last year’s forgetful season, is still recovering from his January wrist surgery. Now? Now the team is staring at unsavory permutations of Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Marlon Byrd, Darnell McDonald, and Lars Anderson roaming Fenway’s outfield.

Even the bullpen, once a strength of the Red Sox, is imploding. The two big pickups–Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon–have done nothing to help the team. Bailey is, once again, injured and out for most the season, while Melancon has an unimaginably high 49.50 ERA, and has since been optioned to AAA Pawtucket. Alfredo Aceves, the new closer, has already blown two saves en route to a 24.00 ERA.

The team chemistry was bad last year, but now it’s soured from bad to worse. They’re not even a loose, fun-loving team with beer and fried chicken like last year; now they’re uptight with a new manager who calls out players, always needing to be in the center of attention. I wasn’t just wrong about this team being a World Series contender, I was wrong about them being a winning team.

Fire the manager; fire the pitching coach; nothing’s going right. The vaunted top of Boston’s rotation (Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz) has a 7.52 ERA to match a 1.45 WHIP. Even the formerly-frightening lineup has become far from formidable–just look at Kevin Youkilis hitting .190 on the year. From the look of things, there won’t be much improvement on the horizon. This is an unmitigated disaster; Boston sports will never be the same.

Or maybe, just maybe, we’re overreacting a bit.

There’s no excuse for the way the Red Sox opened the season, but there are some solid explanations. A team this talented should never win well under a third of their games, but let’s not forget they faced a hellish schedule to start the year. Five teams with a combined winning percentage of .641, to be exact. The Tigers. Blue Jays. Rays. Rangers. Yankees. That sounds like a playoff preview, if you ask me.

I don’t mean to defend this terrible start, but things will turn around. Youkilis won’t finish the year with a .271 OBP. Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz will each have ERAs well under 4. And while Bobby V’s antics may never end, he’s not the reason the bullpen is pitching so poorly.

Just like the 12-4 Washington Nationals will fall back to Earth–regression towards the mean, in case you didn’t know the term–the Red Sox will return to the upper ranks of the AL. And as if it couldn’t have come at a better time, the Sox are about to face the soft underbelly of their schedule. I’m talking about the Twins, White Sox, Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Indians, and Mariners. Twenty-two games against teams with a combined .426 winning percentage.

It’s not time to panic, yet. In fact, it’s never a good thing to panic–that’s when teams make rash decisions. Crawford will return soon, the pitching will even out, and the Red Sox should be back above .500 by the end of this 22 game stretch. But if Boston’s outlook still don’t improve, changes need to be made. Not major changes, but card shuffling–like the promotions of Ryan Lavarnway, Alex Wilson, Jose Iglesias, and perhaps Aaron Cook.

The Boston media will never take a lax position like this, but what’s the use of worrying this early in the season? It isn’t the end of the world. The 2007 Yankees started the year 21-29 before coming back to win the Wild Card–tougher turnarounds have happened before. Between the powerful lineup and strength atop the rotation, things will work themselves out because this team is too talented to fail over an entire season.

2011 was quite ride, but who knows what’s in store for 2012? Get yourself ready with my 2012 Baseball Preview! For the sixth year in a row, the preview is absolutely free, but all I ask is that you tell a friend about it. Enjoy!

 

My 2012 Baseball Preview is slated to come out later this month, so I’m offering a second sneak peak into what this year’s edition will hold. This is my rankings (with scouting reports) for the top 50 prospects. In the preview, each team will have scouting reports for their top 10 prospects plus grades.

Also, the preview is expanding to at least 108 pages this season. But for now, enjoy reading about fifty young players who may be hitting the show over the next few years.

Notes:

• The top two spots remain the same with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout maintaining their spots atop the list.
• Only 17 players return from last year’s top 50 prospects list.
• 18 players graduated to the majors.
• 15 players fell off the top 50 list from last year.
• Of the 33 new players to the list, 10 were selected in the 2011 draft.

Positional Breakdown

• 4 Catchers
• 2 First Basemen
• 5 Third Basemen
• 6 Shortstops
• 11 Outfielders
• 15 Right-Handed Pitchers
• 7 Left-Handed Pitchers

1. Bryce Harper		OF	Nationals
H/W: 6’2″ 245	2011 Ranking: 1	Age: 19	B/T: L/R
He’s got as good of power and arm strength as you’ll find. Quite simply, Harper is the next baseball superstar.

2. Mike Trout		OF	Angels
H/W: 6’1” 217	2011 Ranking: 2	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Trout has plus speed, bat, and defense tools to go with great, patience. The only question is how much power he’ll develop.

3. Matt Moore		LHP	Rays
H/W: 6’2″ 205	2011 Ranking: 26	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
He has an easy delivery with great velocity–bordering on triple digits–and has two strong off-speeds. His improved command makes him a sure-fire future ace.

4. Julio Teheran		RHP	Braves
H/W: 6’2” 175	2011 Ranking: 12	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Teheran has electric stuff, easy velocity, and a plus changeup. He still needs to improve his curveball to fulfill his ace ceiling, though.

5. Gerrit Cole		RHP	Pirates
H/W: 6’4” 220	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
He has three great pitches and no holes in his game. He should reach majors fairly quickly and emerge as a true ace.

6. Shelby Miller		RHP	Cardinals
H/W: 6’3” 195	2011 Ranking: 23	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
A true ace with plus velocity, good arsenal, and projectable size. His command is average, but should improve.

7. Manny Machado		SS	Orioles
H/W: 6’3” 185	2011 Ranking: 13	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Machado often drew comps to Alex Rodriguez between his size, power, and hype from a young age. Despite playing way above his age group, he put up great numbers. His bat and power should end up plus.

8. Dylan Bundy		RHP	Orioles
H/W: 6’1” 200	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Athletic starter with plus curveball and fastball touching 98. He has top-notch potential; the best prep arm out of last June’s draft.

9. Jurickson Profar		SS	Rangers
H/W: 5’11” 165	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 18	B/T: B/R
Reminiscent of Elvis Andrus with a higher ceiling. He’s a plus defender with solid speed and developing power, not to mention great patience. May switch to second if Andrus (or he) isn’t traded.

10. Trevor Bauer		RHP	D-Backs
H/W: 6’1” 175	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Bauer should be a quick mover through the minors with plus curveball and mid-90s fastball. A workhorse, future ace.

11. Jameson Taillon		RHP	Pirates
H/W: 6’6” 225	2011 Ranking: 15	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
The Pirates pitched him conservatively last year, but he has the same upside as Gerrit Cole. Hammer curve and plus fastball look good, but he needs polish.

12. Jesus Montero		C	Mariners
H/W: 6’4” 225	2011 Ranking: 6	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Montero has one of the best bats you’ll find in the minors, but his defense is not even solid. He’s heavy-footed, but his bat will carry plenty of value, even if he lands at DH or 1B.

13. Wil Myers		OF	Royals
H/W: 6’3” 205	2011 Ranking: 27	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
His 2011 was season marred by injuries, but his ceiling remains high. Myers has a plus arm, athleticism, and big-time power potential.

14. Bubba Starling		OF	Royals
H/W: 6’4” 180	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Starling, a legit football prospect, has enormous upside, athleticism, and all five tools. He’s raw, but should see a boost in performance now that he can finally solely focus on baseball.

15. Archie Bradley		RHP	D-Backs
H/W: 6’4” 225	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Bradley may be largely overshadowed by Bauer, but he could be  better in the end–the two-sport star can finally focus on baseball and refine his stuff. If he can get a good third pitch after a killer fastball-curveball combo, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the land.

16. Travis d’Arnaud		C	Blue Jays
H/W: 6’2” 195	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
He’s average defensively, but wields a mean bat. We’re looking at great power, and a plus bat, but his discipline could use some work.

17. Jarrod Parker		RHP	Athletics
H/W: 6’1” 195	2011 Ranking: 31	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Although he doesn’t strike out many, he has dominating stuff–especially slider. He’s a future workhorse ace, even after recovering from Tommy John Surgery.

18. Tyler Skaggs		LHP	D-Backs
H/W: 6’4” 195	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Very young, but very talented. He’s durable, often hard to touch, and has a plus curveball. Suddenly, the Dan Haren trade doesn’t seem so one-sided.

19. Miguel Sano		3B	Twins
H/W: 6’3” 195	2011 Ranking: 35	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Sano has outstanding power, but way too many strikeouts. He’s already outgrown shortstop, so he may outgrow third base, as well, and have to move to right field or first base.

20. Nolan Arenado		3B	Rockies
H/W: 6’1” 205	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Arenado has a great bat with a high power ceiling, and strong plate discipline. Defensively, he’s got a plus arm and average range.

21. Taijuan Walker		RHP	Mariners
H/W: 6’4” 195	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Walker has a tall, lean frame with all sorts of potential as a starter. He’s got a plus fastball and changeup, and dominates his competition.

22. Devin Mesoraco		C	Reds
H/W: 6’1” 220	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Mesoraco is a strong defensive catcher with solid power to match it. Even if he doesn’t hit for much power, he’ll be one of the best catchers in the game with plus patience and bat control.

23. Anthony Rendon		3B	Nationals
H/W: 6’0” 190	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Rendon fell in the 2011 draft because of injuries, but he has plus power, and a strong arm. With Ryan Zimmerman’s $100 million extension, he’ll likely shift to second base when he approaches the majors.

24. Hak-Ju Lee		SS	Rays
H/W: 6’2” 170	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: L/R
Lee has plus speed, bat, and arm strength tools, plus an elite glove. He won’t hit for much power, and he’ll face a big test against AA pitching, which he struggled against in a short stint last year.

25. Josh Bell		OF	Pirates
H/W: 6’4” 195	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: B/R
An unexpected sign, Bell is an elite athlete with plus plus power potential from both sides of the plate. He’s also got a great bat, and solid speed. He just oozes upside.

26. Arodys Vizcaino		RHP	Braves
H/W: 6’0” 190	2011 Ranking: 49	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Vizcaino potentially has better stuff than Julio Teheran, but elbow health and durability are concerns. He may end up a late-inning reliever if he can’t solve those issues.

27. Zach Wheeler		RHP	Mets
H/W: 6’4” 185	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
He’s got a great mix featuring two plus pitches: a fastball and curveball. He’ll get lots of strikeouts but can also lose control. He’s a future ace.

28. Carlos Martinez		RHP	Cardinals
H/W: 6’0” 165	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
He’ll consistently hits 100, despite 6’0” frame, earning him comparisons to Pedro Martinez. He’s also got a plus curve. His command and approach need work.

29. Jacob Turner		RHP	Tigers
H/W: 6’5” 210	2011 Ranking: 17	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Turner doesn’t have the same shine he had last year, but he’s got two plus pitches and great arm strength. Lacks a ton of upside, but he’s a number 2 or 3 starter at worst.

30. Gary Brown		OF	Giants
H/W: 6’1” 190	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Brown has blazing speed, a great bat, and excellent patience. The only concern is that he hasn’t been challenged by Single-A pitching, he needs to face stiffer competition.

31. Martin Perez		LHP	Rangers
H/W: 6’0” 180	2011 Ranking: 16	Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Even though he’s had two straight seasons of so-so numbers, it’s easy to forget he’s only 20. Perez has a plus curveball and top-of-the-rotation potential.

32. Rymer Liriano		OF	Padres
H/W: 6’0” 211	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Liriano has incredible speed with a plus bat to go with nice patience. If his power sets in, this man could become a superstar. Very underrated.

33. Danny Hultzen		LHP	Mariners
H/W: 6’3” 200	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
Hultzen lacks the upside of teammate Taijuan Walker, but he has a very high floor. He’s going to be a number two starter and could start contributing as soon as this July. He’s polished with plus control and a great changeup. Very good, just not great.

34. Christian Yelich		OF	Marlins
H/W: 6’4” 189	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: L/R
He has a great bat, with plus patience and speed. After switching from first base, his defense has been very good, but his arm is weak for center field. Not very rangy, but will likely man center if he plays with Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, and Gaby Sanchez.

35. Drew Pomeranz		LHP	Rockies
H/W: 6’5” 230	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 23	B/T: L/L
A power pitcher with big strikeout numbers, Pomeranz can be dominant especially against leties. He’s got a plus fastball and curve with a solid changeup, but his mechanics are a bit off.

36. Manny Banuelos		LHP	Yankees
H/W: 5’11” 155	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Despite a disappointing season, Banuelos still has a lot of upside at 20. He’s got a small frame, but a plus change and solid control.

37. Anthony Gose		OF	Blue Jays
H/W: 6’1” 190	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Gose has blazing speed, and plus power; his patience makes up for poor contact rates. Defensively, he’s got plus range and a cannon for an arm.

38. Anthony Rizzo		1B	Cubs
H/W: 6’3” 220	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
He’s tough at the plate with a great bat, and very nice power. He got an early promotion last year, but wasn’t ready at 21 years old, so don’t be deceived by his numbers.

39. Jonathan Singleton		1B	Astros
H/W: 6’2” 215	2011 Ranking: 34	Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Singleton has a great bat and huge untapped raw power. Unfortunately, he’s too aggressive at the plate (lots of whiffs), and defense is average. Philadelphia and Houston tried him out at left field, but he’s really just a first baseman.

40. George Springer		OF	Astros
H/W: 6’3” 205	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Springer is a potential five-tool player if he can hit for average. He’s got a high ceiling with high risk and is especially raw for a college player.

41. Oscar Taveras		OF	Cardinals
H/W: 6’2” 180	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: L/L
Taveras has a fantastic bat and plus patience; he put up crazy numbers in Single-A. He’s only 19 and should see a home run power boost soon.

42. Nick Castellanos		3B	Tigers
H/W: 6’4” 195	2011 Ranking: 46	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
He has huge upside offensively, but most of that hinges on his gap power developing into full-on power. He also has a strong arm, but too many strikeouts.

43. Will Middlebrooks		3B	Red Sox
H/W: 6’4” 200	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Middlebrooks is athletic with plus arm strength; big-time power set in last year. He tends to be aggressive and get too many Ks. Looks like the prototypical third baseman.

44. Xander Bogaerts		SS	Red Sox
H/W: 6’3” 185	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Few have upside like Bogaerts. At just 18, he's shown major power, although he remains a a boom or bust prospect. He may outgrow shortstop and move to third or right field, but he has the potential to be a huge star--or fizzle out at AA.

45. Yasmani Grandal		C	Padres
H/W: 6’2” 205	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 23	B/T: B/R
Grandal has a great bat with developing power and plus on-base skills. There are some questions about his defense, but he could end up with a career very similar to former teammate Devin Mesoraco.

46. Matt Harvey		RHP	Mets
H/W: 6’4” 210	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Harvey has a big frame with a plus fastball. He'll relieve if  his changeup doesn’t improve. His control, which is his biggest issue, can be on-and-off.

47. Tyrell Jenkins		RHP	Cardinals
H/W: 6’4” 180	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
The three-sport athlete has great athleticism, plus velocity, good breaking pitches, and huge upside. If he adds weight to his lanky frame, his velocity and durability could tick up even more.

48. Mike Montgomery		LHP	Royals
H/W: 6’4” 185	2011 Ranking: 20	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
Montgomery has solid stuff, and top-of-the-rotation potential, even after a rough season in AAA. He needs to iron out command and find better consistency.

49. Billy Hamilton		SS	Reds
H/W: 6’1” 160	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: B/R
He's got unbelievable speed (103 steals last seasons), and a good bat, but no power. He's not a great defender, but not bad--he may end up moving to second base or center field ultimately.

50. Francisco Lindor		SS	Indians
H/W: 5'11” 175	2011 Ranking: NR	Age: 18	B/T: B/R
Lindor has a strong glove with a plus bat; his power may develop later on. He's mature for an 18 year old, but still far from the majors, even if he'll move quickly for a high schooler.

 

Most people look at Super Bowl XLVI as a quest for revenge, as if Bill Belichick has spent the past two weeks devising ways to disembowel the entire Giants team. But truth be told, this game isn’t about the Patriots getting back at the Giants. Not one bit.

Plain and simple: the Patriots will never be able to make up for losing to New York in Super Bowl XLII. There is absolutely nothing they can do to the Giants or any other team to reconcile the fact that they lost a perfect season that fateful night. Not even three straight Super Bowl blowout victories over Eli and the Giants could make up for a lost perfect season. That team represented more than just a fourth ring for Brady and Belichick, it represented perfection and the greatest team assembled.

But, of course, we all know how things turned out. David Tyree’s catch has been played approximately fifty billion times on ESPN in the past two weeks alone, and the Patriots went from invincible to shockingly human in the playoffs. But here we are, four years later, and the Patriots are meeting the Giants again in the playoffs.

It’s a nice storyline to say that the Patriots want revenge, but that’s not what’s going on here. Fans almost always overblow professional rivalries, and many of the key players from the 2007-08 aren’t on their teams any more. Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Randy Moss, and Laurence Maroney are all gone offensively, and that’s not even mentioning the change in offensive philosophies for the Giants. Four years ago, the running game was the focal point of the offense, averaging 134 yards per game behind Earth (Brandon Jacobs), Wind (Derrick Ward), and Fire (Ahmad Bradshaw). Now, Ward is gone, and they average a league-low 89.2 yards rushing per game.

Back in the day, the Patriots weren’t just known for having a potent offense. Behind Richard Seymour, Tedi Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Adalius Thomas, Ty Warren, and Asante Samuel, they had the fourth ranked defense in the league. But now? They have a bend-don’t-break mentality with one of the worst secondaries in league history.

Aside from Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and a handful of players on either side of the ball, these teams are completely different. This isn’t about revenge, it’s about which team is the better team. If anything, the motivation factor is the Patriots being called out by the Giants.

Despite being three-point favorites over New York, the Patriots are big underdogs in this game. The Giants are talking like they’ve already won the big game, and even a majority of experts are picking them to win. But that’s not how I see it.

At the beginning of season, Eli Manning said he belonged in the same conversation as Tom Brady in terms of elite quarterbacks. I’ll admit, I laughed at that. But he’s proved that he belongs in the top-10 at the very least. However, he’s still not even close to joining the league of Tom Brady. Brady is deadly accurate with a long history of playoff success.

Brady has a 15-5 playoff record with a 62.1 completion percentage and 30 TDs to 18 interceptions? And Eli? He’s 5-3 with a 57.8 completion percentage and 10 TDs to 7 INTs. Brady also has the pedigree of playing in four Super Bowls.

But that is all the past. The demons of 2008 are gone, and it’s all about who can play the best over 60 minutes.

I don’t expect anything fancy from the Patriots. I expect a lot of easy passes to Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski, and lots of handoffs to The Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. BJGE has never fumbled the ball, and if the Patriots don’t turn over the ball, they’ve got a great chance to win.

In the end, I don’t think Eli Manning has what it takes to out-duel Tom Brady in the big game. The Giants don’t have the same defense that knocked around Brady last time around–they don’t have the secondary to stop Welker, Hernandez, and the 6’7″ monster named Gronkowski. The Patriots may be weak of defense, but they’ve come up big when it matters worse.

The Patriots aren’t going to win this game because they want to get back for the last time around. They’re going to win because Bill Belichick prepares them better, because Tom Brady will take apart the Giants’ secondary piece by piece, and because they’re fighting for the memory of Myra Kraft.

The Giants are a good team, but they’re not Patriots great.

Patriots 27 Giants 20

We’ve seen an absolute array of statistics revolutionized by the sabermetric era of baseball. All sorts of acronyms that confuse the average fan–UZR, wOBA, and FIP–are becoming more and more accepted among baseball communities. But those statistics only cover defense, hitting, and pitching–leaving out one of the major baseball tools. The statistical side of the final segment of baseball (base running) has hardly been changed since Day One when the stolen base stat was drawn up.

As an advanced thinker of baseball, this bothered me. Sure, there was the net steal (simply stolen bases minus times caught stealing) and the newly-christened Ultimate Baserunning, but neither covers the whole story. Net Steals don’t appropriately value the damage done by being caught stealing, and UBR doesn’t even factor in stolen bases.

Many teams–including the much publicized Moneyball Athletics–have stopped trying to steal bases in general. Why? Because the risk is so high, taking an extra base is often a gamble with a low return. Successfully stealing one base in every two tries doesn’t break even, that extra out created ultimately doesn’t justify taking an extra base. Having a man on second is clearly much more valuable than having a man on first, but there is value enough in just having a man on base–without using up one of your 27 outs.

According to studies done by James Click on stealing bases, a runner needs to steal successfully about 73% of the time to break even. Now, this number fluctuates depending on which base is being attempted at and how many outs there are. But the point is that the rate you need to make it into the black is much higher than the previously used 50%.

In simpler terms, this means that for every three times a runner is caught stealing, he needs at least eight stolen bases to not be hurting his team. Even eight out of twelve swipes is a failure. And with that in mind, it gives us the formula for Weighted Net Steals (abbreviated wNS):

wNS = SB – (8/3)CS

Before we break down the leaders in weighted net steals, let’s take a look at the top 10 base stealers of 2011 based on stolen bases:

		SB	CS	wNS
Michael	Bourn	61	14	23.67
Coco	Crisp	49	9	25.00
Brett	Gardner	49	13	14.33
Matt	Kemp	40	11	10.67
Emilio	Bonifacio	40	11	10.67
Ichiro	Suzuki	40	7	21.33
Cameron	Maybin	40	8	18.67
Drew	Stubbs	40	10	13.33
Jose	Reyes	39	7	20.33
Jacoby	Ellsbury	39	15	-1.00

From just looking at stolen bases, Michael Bourn is by far the best runner, followed by Gardner, Kemp, and a pack of seven equally good runners. But once you weigh the disadvantage of being caught stealing, the rankings shake up dramatically. Kemp, Bonifacio, and Stubbs fall out of the top 10, and Ellsbury is so inefficient that he receives a negative grade for wNS.

Here are the top twenty base stealers of 2011 based on net steals:

		SB	CS	NS	wNS
Michael	Bourn	61	14	47	23.7
Coco	Crisp	49	9	40	25.0
Brett	Gardner	49	13	36	14.3
Ichiro	Suzuki	40	7	33	21.3
Jose	Reyes	39	7	32	20.3
Cameron	Maybin	40	8	32	18.7
Drew	Stubbs	40	10	30	13.3
Emilio	Bonifacio	40	11	29	10.7
Matt	Kemp	40	11	29	10.7
Ryan	Braun	33	6	27	17.0
Ian	Kinsler	30	4	26	19.3
Jason	Bourgeois	31	6	25	15.0
Angel	Pagan	32	7	25	13.3
Ben	Revere	34	9	25	10.0
Elvis	Andrus	37	12	25	5.0
Erick	Aybar	30	6	24	14.0
B.J.	Upton	36	12	24	4.0
Jacoby	Ellsbury	39	15	24	-1.0
Will	Venable	26	3	23	18.0
Eric	Young	27	4	23	16.3

Net steals are much better than pure stolen bases when it comes to assessing the best base stealers in the game. But as discussed earlier in this article, it doesn’t put enough importance on being caught stealing. Gardner, Stubbs, Bonifacio, Kemp, Andrus, Upton, and Ellsbury were all caught stealing double-digit times, yet they remained in the Top-20. Unfortunately, Net Steals doesn’t exactly measure efficiency for steals, it just slightly penalizes overly-aggressive base stealers.

Here are the top twenty base stealers of 2011 based on weighted net steals:

		SB	CS	wNS
Coco	Crisp	49	9	25.0
Michael	Bourn	61	14	23.7
Ichiro	Suzuki	40	7	21.3
Jose	Reyes	39	7	20.3
Ian	Kinsler	30	4	19.3
Cameron	Maybin	40	8	18.7
Will	Venable	26	3	18.0
Craig	Gentry	18	0	18.0
Ryan	Braun	33	6	17.0
Eric	Young	27	4	16.3
Jason	Bourgeois	31	6	15.0
Brett	Gardner	49	13	14.3
Chase	Utley	14	0	14.0
Erick	Aybar	30	6	14.0
Drew	Stubbs	40	10	13.3
Angel	Pagan	32	7	13.3
Gerardo	Parra	15	1	12.3
Jordan	Schafer	22	4	11.3
Jayson	Werth	19	3	11.0
Shane	Victorino	19	3	11.0

What we see now is that raw stolen base totals aren’t so important. Craig Gentry cracked the top 10 list, and he didn’t even swipe 20 bases all year. He just was never caught. Will Venable and Eric Young made it in at #6 and #10 respectively, despite only taking 53 bases combined. But they were only caught 7 times all year.

Your strength as a baserunner doesn’t really depend on how many times you steal a base. Runner X who steals 40 bases and gets caught 15 times has the same wNS score as a runner who takes eight bases while getting caught three times. It’s about efficiency.

Weighted Net Steals also somewhat takes a page out of the book of Simpson’s Paradox. The stat doesn’t revolve around just efficiency, or Adrian Gonzalez would be the best baserunner in the league with one steal in one attempt. The aforementioned Craig Gentry may be 18-for-18 in steals, but he’ll get a lower wNS score than Cameron Maybin, who went 40-for-48, since Maybin has stolen many more bases, even after being caught eight times. Of course, the difference between their scores (18 and 18.7) is minute, but it shows that it takes more than never being caught to be a good baserunner.

Base stealing is one of the last fronts in baseball that still has room to grow in terms of advanced stats. But I believe that wNS is a step in the right direction. The stat doesn’t measure speed; home-to-first times are more valuable if that’s what you’re looking for. Rather, wNS shows just how much value a player adds to his team. Each whole number is an extra base added (just like stretching a single into a double), and a score of zero means the player had no impact (positive or negative) on the basepaths.

These values, though, are not meant to be predictive. In fact, they can even fluctuate greatly between seasons. But what they do illustrate is the efficiency of the player’s baserunning.

For example, you can read into Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 wNS score of -1 and see a tick-below-average runner. That may be true for last season, but you can’t extrapolate that number to say he’s an average runner overall. In fact, for his career, he’s a wonderfully efficient runner with a career wNS of 71–good for 14.2 per season. Before last season, he posted wNS scores of 4.3, 38, 20.7, and 9.

Some teams have sworn off stealing because of the repercussions of being caught stealing. But that’s not the best strategy. When done efficiently, stealing is an easy way to compensate for a lineup that may be lacking in pop. Maybe that’s why the Moneyball A’s never won anything.