I haven’t been writing too many blog posts recently for a couple of reasons. One, I’ve been distracted with whatnot related to college. Two, I can get a little lazy/procrastinate-y. But third and most importantly, I’ve started to write for another blog, Bobcats Baseline.

I’ve been blessed with this opportunity to write for this blog, which I mostly thank Bobcats Baseline’s own ASChin and Dr. E for. Hopefully, I’ll contribute twice or so per month.

I can’t thank these guys enough for this new writing chance. Of course, I’ll still be posting on The Knuckle Blog, but I’ll also put any posts I have for Bobcats Baseline on a newly created page for those posts.

Below are my first two posts for the site. The first is my new post on how the Bobcats can possibly trade Boris Diaw. The second is a post from way back in July about what to expect from Kemba Walker’s rookie season.

Don’t forget to check them out and read from the site in general, too. Also, you can follow ASChin on Twitter @bobcatsbaseline and Dr. E @BaselineDrE.

 

Trading Boris Diaw

Kemba Walker — Expect Big Things

I didn’t post a blog about the playoffs last week since I was out of town, but have no fear, my picks are here! Home teams in CAPS.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens

You could call the Patriots lucky. The Broncos knocked out the Steelers, the Giants took down the Packers, and the Niners shocked the Saints. All of a sudden, the Patriots could win the Super Bowl by beating Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, and Alex Smith. Then again, you could call the Patriots unlucky because they’ve never had this much pressure on them to win the Super Bowl.

Not only are the Patriots by far the best team left in the playoffs, they possibly have to exorcize demons from their 18-1 season. They’ve also just won one playoff game since that fateful loss to the Giants. But let’s not get too caught up in minor details; let’s get to the breakdown.

The Patriots are clearly the more talented team. Plain and simple. But one thing scares me about this game: New England has a strange propensity to spot the other team big points early. In the last three regular season games, they’ve spotted the Broncos, Dolphins, and Bills  7, 17, and 221 points before putting points on the board themselves. The last two games were even at home. And this would become even more problematic if they do this against the Ravens.

It’s not just that they’d be giving up points to the Ravens, spotting Baltimore points early on would put the Patriots right where the Ravens want them. Their offense works best when Ray Rice is getting most of the touches. If the Ravens are way ahead, they’ll want to control the clock by pounding the ball–straight into the 17th ranked rush defense. The way the Patriots can nearly assure a win is if they can force Joe Flacco to beat them. Which he can’t.

But I don’t expect the Patriots to fall behind early. As tough as it will be for the Pats to contain Ray Rice, I can’t envision any way the Ravens can stop Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Their linebacking core is too old, and the secondary is too small. And even if they do find some magic powder and cover those two, they won’t have enough players to stop Wes Welker.

In the end, Tom Brady just doesn’t lose at home, and he doesn’t lose in the snow. The Ravens are a little too old on defense, and I can’t see them stopping Tom Terrific.

Giants (+2.5) over NINERS

Right off the bat, I’ll tell you this: I think the 49ers are going to win this game. I’m taking the Giants with the points, however, because I think this game will be very close.

After Cam Newton, no player surprised me more this year than Eli Manning. I’ve made more than my fair of (mostly-deserved) Manning jokes, but to his credit, he has completed most of his passes. Tim Tebow can’t say that. He has the sixth best passing yardage in a season, which is a surprise considering his lack of Brady Hair.

This Giants team was a big surprise to me. If Jason Garrett didn’t ice his own kicker, they wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Yet, they made it. And they even have the same formula as the 2007 Super Bowl Champion team. I still don’t love the team, though, because I don’t trust the running game, I don’t trust the quarterback, and I don’t trust their red-faced coach.

But let’s not forget about the Niners. After all, I am picking them to make the Super Bowl. Coach John Harbaugh has turned Alex Smith into Andrew Luck-lite: a QB who can hand the ball off to a great running game and make all the passes when he’s needed. That may not sound like Andrew Luck, but look up Stanford’s games, and that’s exactly what his role was.

The Niners were as shocking as any team, yet they really shouldn’t be a surprise. They have an outstanding defense, and great running game, and enough offense through the air to beat you. It’s what the Giants should have, except Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have just disappeared this year.

This game should be close, and I’m not sure it’ll be a lot of fun. My best guess is that with about four minutes left, there will be less than 35 total points on the board, and one team will have to make the winning drive. And I believe that team will be San Francisco. Harbaugh has his team playing so hard for him–I think he has one last magical run in this overachieving team. I think the Niners will pull this one out in the last minute–not so far off from what they did against the Saints–but they’ll win by two or less.

Last Week: 2-2

Playoffs: 4-4

What a great season we just had. A team nearly went undefeated, and another almost went defeated. Brett Favre declined an invitation from the Texans and Bears to come back, and Mark Sanchez declined an invitation to be a starting quarterback next season. Oh, and do you even remember there being a lockout? It seems like ages ago.

I’ll just cut to the chase, here are my NFL Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks. Home teams in CAPS.

TEXANS (-3) over Bengals

As an NFL fan, it’s really sad that the season Houston finally makes the playoffs, they lost their start quarterback and pass rusher for the year. Defensively, they’re still fine with Brian Cushing, J.J. Watt, DeMeco Ryans, and Johnathan Joseph, but the offense is hurting considerably.

The Texans had the second best rushing attack in the game to match Matt Schaub’s prolific air attack, giving Houston one of the best rounded offenses in the league. But now with T.J. Yates at the helm, teams can put seven and eight and nine men in the box to force him to pass. Yates is 2-3 as a starter with 158 yards passing per game and 3 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. He’s far from good, but he’s not Jake Delhomme bad.

With that in mind, you’d think that the Texans would be a pushover at home. But they’re not playing the Steelers. They’re not even playing the Broncos. They’re playing the Bengals.

Most people thought the Bengals were headed to another year of mediocrity, and if you had suggested they’d make the playoffs, I’d have called you crazy. In fact, I may or may not have picked them to go 3-13 this year. But their 9-7 record is deceiving, and I’ll tell you why.

The 17-week NFL season is a marathon, but since each team only plays sixteen games, a couple of wins can really distort a team’s record. Cincinnati had a horrific strength of schedule (facing the Browns twice, the NFC West, and the AFC South), while only beating one team with a winning record: 9-7 Tennessee.

The Bengals had seven games against playoffs teams and struck out. In fact, they were out-scored 171-113. Andy Dalton isn’t good, he’s a fine game manager with a great defense. Cedric Benson isn’t a good running back, he just gets over 19 touches per game. The Bengals aren’t good, they’ve just feasted off of sub-par competition.

SAINTS (-9.5) over Lions

What’s more embarrassing than losing to a team that lays down in front of you? Letting their backup quarterback set a franchise record with 480 passing yards. So now I pose this question to you: if the Lions let Matt Flynn walk all over them, how much damage will Drew Brees do to them?

To be frank, I don’t think that this game will be very close. Then again, I thought that the Saints would absolutely run over the Seahawks in the first round last year. But that’s beside the point. The Lions defense is more porous than SpongeBob right now, and Drew Brees is more precise than an LA plastic surgeon. So instead of discussing why the Saints will run away with this game, I’ll discuss which team has a better shot at downing the Packers: the Saints or Niners.

It sounds almost crazy, discussing Drew Brees and Alex Smith in the same sentence. But the discussion is not exactly which quarterback is more likely to take down the Packers, but rather which team has a better show. These teams are very different: the Saints are an overpowering offensive team and the Niners are a pound-you-till-you’re-out aggressive team. We’ve seen the Saints already lose to the Packers in Week 1, but they came as close to beating Green Bay as anyone did without winning.

But while we’ve seen the Saints against Green Bay, we haven’t see San Francisco take on Green Bay, let alone a juggernaut offense all year. That is unless you count pre-Week 7 incarnations of the Lions and Eagles. They’ve mostly played average (or worse) offensive teams, which has allowed them to stay on their game plan: run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball. They’ve never fallen behind by more than 20, and haven’t trailed by more than seven since Thanksgiving. But I think if and when they fall behind big to the Packers, they’ll have to leave their game plan and will end up running into trouble.

In the end, I’ll give the Saints a better shot against the Packers than I will the Niners. They’ve got a very similar team to the Packers, but they’re just about completely healthy. While the Packers ended the year a bit shaky, the Saints were firing on all cylinders. I won’t give you my pick yet, but I’ll say that it’ll make one helluva Championship Game.

Falcons (+3) over GIANTS

On a personal note, I’ve always like the Falcons and disliked the Giants. But I’m not going to let that get in the way of serious football logic with this pick, I actually do think the Falcons can win this game. Matt Ryan may not have taken The Leap this year, but as a whole, I think the Falcons are the better team.

The Giants are a funny team to say the least. They’re known as a smash-mouth team, yet they’re 32nd in rushing. There are holes across the defense, yet they’re 3rd in the league in sacks, mostly sending only four pass rushers. Citizen Eco-Drive claims that Eli Manning is unstoppable, but, well…

Atlanta, on the other hand, is very predictable and explainable. As Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz pointed out, the Falcons had the most consistent defense this season according to their defensive metric DVOA. Ever. They beat up on bad teams, outscoring teams 314-201 in their ten wins–against teams with a record of 60-100. The six losses came against teams with a combined record of 63-33 by a combined score of 159-88. They beat up on the poor and lose to the rich.

Each team is clearly flawed–I don’t see either team putting up much of a fight against the Packers or Niners. But I think the Giants lack of a run game and inability to stop the pass will ultimately lead to their downfall. Atlanta can drop seven players into coverage and force Eli Manning to pull a Mark Sanchez and throw away the game. This one should be close, but I think the Falcons offense will be too much for the faulty Giants D.

Steelers (-8) over BRONCOS

There are too many Tim Tebow/Ben Roethlisberger jokes, I’ll be the bigger man and stay away from them. No, I’ll give you just one: Tim Tebow is such a good citizen, he makes Ben Roethlisberger look like Kobe Bryant. No, wait, Lawrence Taylor.

At first glance, this game looks like a blowout. And it probably will be. But the Steelers lost stud running back Rashard Mendenhall for the year, safety Ryan Clark is out for this week, and Big Ben is still banged up. Pittsburgh is clearly a step behind the Ravens, but you can never count out a team run by Ben Roethlisberger.

Similar to Baltimore, Pittsburgh has always been known for a stingy defense and adequate defense. But in the last couple of seasons, both teams have transformed into very nice offensive teams. With the emergence of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown as very good deep options, Pittsburgh can beat you through the air. But we’ve seen so much of this Steelers team that we often get tuned out to just how great they are, turning our attention to younger, more exciting teams.

Pittsburgh may be banged up, but their offense is betweeen 3 and 14 times better than the Broncos. We’ve all talked for ages about the merits of Tim Tebow, but for now, he’s not going to take down the big boys without better weapons. Eric Decker couldn’t even tear it up at Minnesota his senior year. The Broncos win games by pounding the ball, and the Steelers are eighth in the league at stopping the run. Not to mention being tops in pass defense.

I’d pick the Broncos against the Bengals and Texans. I really would. But the Stillers are in an entirely different league compared to the Broncos. Weirder stuff has happened in the Mile High air, but Pittsburgh should run away with this game. As a final thought, the Broncos scored 17 combined points to close the year against the vaunted Chiefs and Bills D. How well could they possibly do against Pittsburgh? This is your Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

I’m just going to throw it out there: I hate Week 17. And not just because it’s the last week I’ll get to see Cam Newton in a game for about seven months. From a betting prospective, this is the worst week ever to put money on games. Starters sit, normal injuries get extra rest, motivation changes, and more starters sit. This week has the weirdest lines (Green Bay is a home underdog) because so many playoff seeds are already set.

Why is this week different from all other weeks? Are teams actually going to tank for one game? We’ll find out by watching, but find out below in my Week 17 picks. Home teams, as usual, in CAPS.

PATRIOTS (-12.5) over Bills
If there was any coach to run up the score in Week 17, don’t you think it would be Belichick?

Bears (-0.5) over VIKINGS
We’ve seen so many young quarterbacks this year. Between five rookies, all too many injuries, and a couple of bad starters, there have been more backups playing than days in a Kardashian marriage. But only two have been really bad: Blaine Gabbert and Caleb Hanie. The rest have been great (Cam Newton), good (Andy Dalton), or serviceable (Dan Orlovsky). On the other hand, the Vikings are missing Adrian Peterson; I think I’ll be taking the Bears.

PACKERS (+1.5) over Lions
I don’t care what the Packers are playing for, I’m not giving points taking the Lions here. Also, how much extra motivation is it really to move from the 6th ranked team to the 5th ranked team?

TEXANS (+2.5) over Titans
I just don’t think the Titans are that good. But they’ve still got a shot at the playoffs. All they need is a win, a Cincinnati loss, and a either a Jets win and one AFC West team losing or both AFC West teams winning while the Jets lose. Or Moses to part the Red Sea.

Colts (+4.5) over JAGUARS
Do you think the Colts players love Peyton Manning so much that they’d purposely un-blow a game to keep him around? I’m not sure if they would, but I can’t rely on Blaine Gabbert to win by five under any circumstances.

Niners (-10.5) over RAMS
If you can beat the Steelers 20-3, I hope you can go on the road and beat the Rams by 11.

Jets (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
As weird of a turnaround as it’s been for the Dolphins, I just can’t pick them against the Jets when New York has the playoffs to play for. Deep down, I’ll be rooting for Miami just so Rex Ryan will either a) say something really stupid or b) never make a bold proclamation ever again. We both know a) is far more likely, though.

Panthers (+7.5) over SAINTS
If you consider that this off-season the Panthers will be adding the 2nd best linebacker in the game (Jon Beason), a near All-Pro linebacker and tackle (Thomas Davis and Jeff Otah), plus a top-12 1st and 2nd round pick at the bare minimum, it’s not to crazy to say that this team is headed to the playoffs next year. Cam Newton is just that good.

EAGLES (-8.5) over Redskins
For a moment, I wanted to go with the suddenly-tough Redskins, but then I remembered that they have Rex Grossman. I really hope they either land Robert Griffin III or Peyton Manning this off-season because then I can really jump on their bandwagon.

Buccaneers (+13.5) over FALCONS
The Falcons are essentially playing for the same thing that the Lions are: to move up one spot in the playoffs. But no matter how awful the Bucs are, I just can’t see the Falcons going all-out to beat them by two touchdowns.

Ravens (-2.5) over BENGALS
Sure, the Bengals have more to play for, the the Bengals might want some momentum headed to the playoffs. I still love Baltimore this year because they get up for the big games (6-0 against the Steelers, Niners, Jets, Bengals, and Texans). They won’t have to face the Seahawks and Jags in the playoffs.

Steelers (-7.5) over BROWNS
The Browns were bad to start with, so when Colt McCoy left it just turned unbearable. As a side note, you know your team is terrible when you’re hurting for a future career backup QB to return from injury.

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Chiefs
Are we forgetting that Kyle Orton is not good? He was 12-21 as a starter in Denver, including 4-14 the last two years. He’s the very definitely on an average quarterback. Denver can make the playoffs with a win, so I’ll put my faith in Timmy Tebow. (See what I did there?)

Chargers (+2.5) over RAIDERS
I’m not giving 2.5 to take the Raiders.

Seahawks (+3.5) over CARDINALS
For this game, go with my usual rule of thumb: In an NFC West game without San Fran, TAKE THE POINTS! It’s 3-2 on the year.

Cowboys (+3.5) over GIANTS
I don’t think there’s a single play more career-altering than Tony Romo’s botched hold against Seattle in the playoffs. Because of it, everyone thinks of him as a choker and a loser. But really, he’s the best 4th quarter QBs all year by quarterback rating. Better than Brady. Better than Tebow. In fact, he has 18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in his last seven games.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 119-121

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 11-4

 

Silly me, I thought the NFL was played on Sunday. To my surprise, on the way to a 2PM movie, I found out the Panthers were up 10-0 on the Bucs. Huh. How about that. Well let’s jump back in time to Wednesday when I made my Week 16 picks. Home teams in CAPS.

Texans (-5.5) over COLTS
Broncos (-3.5) over BILLS
BENGALS (-4.5) over Cardinals
RAVENS (-13.5) over Browns
Jaguars (+7.5) over TITANS
Raiders (+0.5) over CHIEFS
Rams (+15.5) over STEELERS
PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Dolphins
Vikings (+6.5) over REDSKINS
Giants (+2.5) over JETS
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
Chargers (+2.5) over LIONS
Eagles (+2.5) over COWBOYS
Niners (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Bears (+12.5) over PACKERS
Falcons (+6.5) over SAINTS

But all is not lost on the sixth night of Hanukkah, the NBA is back! No more wondering how long before the Pistons get evicted or Chris Paul realizes he’s been traded to the Clippers. Yes, those Clippers. Because the wait is over.

I’m not going to give a 75-page NBA preview like I did for baseball, but I’ll offer a mini-preview for each team.

Eastern Conference:

1. Miami Heat
This team was two games away from winning it all last year without a full to gel. Now they’ve got Shane Battier, a healthy Haslem and Miller, and no Eddie House. With the shortened season, they should be the odds on favorite. Championship or bust. And I think they’ll do just that this year.

2. Chicago Bulls
Adding a real shooting guard in Rip Hamilton will be huge, adding a legitimate scorer for Derrick Rose. The key is Carlos Boozer: when he’s on, they can be the best team in the East, but when he’s playing small they’re the LeBron Cavs. They’re not far behind the Heat, and there’s a huge drop-off from this point on in the East.

3. Boston Celtics
I’m afraid of this pick because of the age of the team and sudden lack of depth–no thanks to Kendrick Perkins, David West, and Jeff Green. But they’ve got the best chemistry in the league, the toughest defense, and the most ubuntu. (You just said teamwork twice… Yeah well I like the word ubuntu). The Celtics will get up for big games but look terrible against the Sixers and Wizards of the NBA.

4. New York Knicks
Tyson Chandler was perhaps the biggest addition of the off-season. While he’s just about the only player who plays defense on the team, New York will clean up in the regular season–baring major injuries. And it’s not like this team is injury prone. Whoops. Remember, New York was 14-14 after the Melo trade. This team is still seriously flawed.

5. Indiana Pacers
As weird as it sounds, the Pacers will be pretty good this year. They’ve got a cadre of effective big men with Roy Hibbert, David West, Beaker, and Jeff Foster along with talented perimeter play from Danny Granger, Paul George, Darren Collison, and George Hill. They’ve still got some cap room, so look for them to add a 2-guard so that Paul George can switch back to his natural position at small forward.

6. Atlanta Hawks
We all know the definition of insanity, right? Doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. Well how many times do we have to watch the same team? The only difference from last year is they’ve swapped Jamal Crawford for an older, less efficient Tracy McGrady. Yes, they’re fairly young and talented, but without Kirk Hinrich, they’re not going anywhere without shaking up the roster.

7. Orlando Magic
Dwight Howard said he’s leaving, and GM Otis Smith sure isn’t helping out at all. The team is smothered with terrible contracts, even after amnestying Gilbert Arenas, and the big off-season move was swapping Brandon Bass for Big Baby. They need to jump on the Nets’ offer of Brook Lopez and five–yes FIVE–first round picks for Dwight because he’s more done in Orlando than… than… a pie in the oven an hour too long.

8. Milwaukee Bucks
Yeah, yeah, even Jim Rome could have made a better comp than that last one. But back to basketball. Milwaukee addressed some of their offensive problems adding Stephen Jackson, but at the cost of moving out of the top-10 picks of the draft. They’ve got a stud big man, an electric point guard, and solid defense. Good enough to make the playoffs in the East, but not good enough to win 30 games.

9. Philadelphia 76ers
With no additions, I don’t see this team making the playoffs. Evan Turner is not all he was cracked up to be, Jrue Holiday is an average starter at best, and Elton Brand is no longer fit to start the entire season. They’ll need a big step forward from two of Thaddeus Young, Turner, Holiday, and Jodie Meeks to make the playoffs.

10. New Jersey Nets
Before the Brook Lopez injury, the Nets may have been good enough to make the playoffs because of those two players alone. But that notion is long gone. Their best option at this point is to play rookie Marshon Brooks and second-year man Damion James, hoping one will take off. Now, if they land Dwight Howard, this team could be a threat. A threat to make the second round.

11. Washington Wizards
Last year, I foolishly picked this team to make the playoffs based on talent alone. They’ve still got John Wall, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, and Nick Young. I just understimated the importance of chemistry and plain ol’ basketball IQ. Or just IQ. In the past year, they’ve added Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, and a personal favorite of mine, Jordan Crawford. This team is very much a project, but a talented one at that.

12. Detroit Pistons
Where to start… where to start. The good news for the Pistons is that they’ve got two building blocks in Greg Monroe and Brandon Knight. Yeah, I’ll pass on Rodney Stuckey and Austin Daye. Unfortunately for them, they’re nowhere close to making the playoffs, but not quite in the league of the Cavs, Bobcats, and Raptors for worst teams in the league.

13. Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats are full of potential good players (Kemba, The Big Smack, Henderson, Tyrus Thomas, and DJ White) but no good ones. Their big off-season move was landing Byron Mullens. Yikes. And if you need one sentence to sum up how this season will fare, try this: Corey Maggette and Boris Diaw will lead the Bobcats in scoring. You can bet this team will be looking at Harrison Barnes, Anthony Davis, Jared Sullinger, or Andre Drummond next year.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers
As crazy as it is that the Cavs got Kyrie Irving for Mo Williams, they’re still a terrible team. It makes no sense that 36-year old Anthony Parker is starting, but he is better than Christian Eyenga or Alonzo Gee. Before long, Antawn Jamison will be moved to make way for Tristan Thompson and the team will really start to show their awful colors.

15. Toronto Raptors
As I noted this July, the Raptors may actually have the right idea, drafting an extremely talented player (Jonas Valanciunas) who can’t come over for a year–saving money and delaying a big pay day–so that you can tank for another great player. I call it double-tanking. It’s a great strategy for Bryan Colangelo, except he probably won’t be a part of this team when it’s actually competitive.

Western Conference:

1. Dallas Mavericks
When the Chris Paul-to-the-Lakers trade fell through, Lamar Odom fell into Dallas’ lap, pushing them over the top of the Western Conference. More so than any other team in the West, this team has incredible depth. Dirk. Terry. Kidd. Marion. Odom. Vince. That’s not even mentioning Brendan Haywood and Rodrigue Beaubois.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
A trendy Western Conference pick–and my pick to lose in the Finals to the Heat–the Thunder are about as talented as any team out there. My only issue with the team is how many shots Russell Westbrook likes to take. He needs to be more of a creator, getting James Harden and Serge Ibaka more involved. Basically deferring to Durant in crunch time would help, too.

3. Memphis Grizzlies
Shocker, yes, but what’s not to like about the team. They were nearly in the Conference Finals last year–without their best player. They’ve got two dominant big men, a scoring wing man, and two (nearly) competent guards. I’ll also bet you that one of Josh Selby, Xavier Henry, and O.J. Mayo really takes off this year. 30-1 odds sounds great for this team, except that the Heat are absolutely going to win.

4. Los Angeles Clippers
This team reminds me of the 07-08 Hornets. The Clippers have their own Chris Paul (Chris Paul), David West (Blake Griffin), Peja Stojakovic (Caron Butler), and Tyson Chandler (DeAndre Jordan). Additionally, they have an array of quality guards in Chauncey Billups, Mo Williams, and Randy Foye. They’re young, deep, and exciting. They’re still a player away from a real championship run, like a shooting guard, say, Eric Gordon.

5. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are a potential disaster team. Kobe is grumpy, Gasol knows he was nearly on the way out, Bynum knows he could be bait for Dwight Howard, and Metta World Peace is even worse than Ron Artest. The CP3 trade isn’t what put the Clippers over the Lakers; the loss of Lamar Odom is what did them in. Now, Josh McRoberts is their fourth best player. They don’t have good chemistry, they don’t have any good point guards, and they’ve lost their depth. This isn’t looking good.

6. San Antonio Spurs
The shortened schedule is really going to kill the Spurs. They swapped George Hill for T.J. Ford and Kawhi Leonard, which isn’t going to cut it while the Heat, Mavs, and Knicks made big improvements. I don’t rank them this low because I doubt their ability to compete but because I don’t think they’ll be able to–nor want to–go all out all year. I wouldn’t want to face San Antonio in the playoffs, but there will be more than a few games during the regular season when their Big Three plays less than 60 combined minutes.

7. Denver Nuggets
I’ll give the Nuggets this: they’re deep. But they’re not too talented. Nene is a keeper, but I don’t love Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson, and Arron Afflalo. They could do a lot better in the regular season because of their depth (Birdman, Jordan Hamilton, Rudy Fernandez, Kenneth Faried, Andre Miller, Al Harrington…). But if and when they do make the playoffs, they’ll be lucky to win 3 games.

8. Portland Trailblazers
Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams, did North Carolina move west? Well even without Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, this is a strong team. LaMarcus Aldridge, Wallace, Felton, and Marcus Camby makes for a strong core, especially with guards Jamal Crawford and Wes Matthews. It’s a good team, but its not good enough to compete for a title.

9. Utah Jazz
While watching Deron Williams in a Nets jersey stings, Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and the promise of another lottery pick look even better. Sometime soon, Al Jefferson needs to be moved since he’s not a part of their future and is owed $29 million. Utah’s on the right track, but they’re not playoff good yet.

10. Houston Rockets
Houston was so close to adding Pau Gasol and Nene. But it just wasn’t meant to be. Now, they’ve got to settle with Samuel Dalembert, Luis Scola, Chase Budinger, Kevin Martin, and Kyle Lowry. They’re still young, though, with Patrick Patterson, Courtney Lee, and Marcus Morris. The only way they’re going high places is if one of their many reclamation projects (Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Terrence Williams, and Jonny Flynn) works out.

11. Golden State Warriors
All offense, no defense, same story. I love Stephen Curry, but this is the same team as last year. Instead of drafting an athletic defender–Kawhi Leonard would’ve been perfect–they took another no defense shooter. Nice.

12. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets actually got a great haul for Chris Paul and a solid starting five. The problem is they have no very good players and zero depth. They’re looking for a Jazz-like recovery, but I’m concerned that Eric Gordon won’t want to re-sign, and we’ll have to go through this entire song and dance again.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves
How many point guards and athletic wing players can one team hoard? I like Derrick Williams, but isn’t he the same player as Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Wesley Johnson, and Anthony Randolph? This is the most talented Wolves team in years, but they’re still years from competition.

14. Sacramento Kings
There will never be enough shots to go around. Tyreke Evans needs his shots, Jimmer needs his shots, Marcus Thornton needs his shots, John Salmons needs his shots, Donte Greene needs his shots, J.J. Hickson needs his shots, DeMarcus Cousins needs his shots… and you get the point. They don’t have chemistry, they’re not going anywhere.

15. Phoenix Suns
It’s really sad how bad the Suns have become. Marcin Gortat is a quality big, but the rest of this team is just terrible. Who’s the third-best player? Jared Dudley? Channing Frye? Shannon Brown?? Steve Nash deserves better.